Biden predicts Russia will invade Ukraine, warns Putin

President Joe Biden stated on Wednesday that he believes Russia will attack Ukraine and that if it happens, his country will pay a “heavy price” in terms of lives lost and possibly cutoff from the global banking system.

At a press conference marking his one-year anniversary in office, Biden also stated that a “small intrusion” by Russia would be met with a lower response. He then clarified that he was referring to a non-military operation, such as a cyberattack, that would elicit a similar reciprocal response, and that crossing the Ukrainian border and murdering Ukrainian fighters “changes everything.”

However, the remarks alluded to the difficulty of keeping the US and its NATO partners united in their reaction to Russia. “It’s very important that we keep everyone in NATO on the same page,” he said in explaining the tiny invasion comment.

The news conference took place at a critical juncture in Europe, with Russia amassing 100,000 troops along the Ukrainian border and a series of talks in Europe last week failing to reduce tensions. On Friday in Geneva, Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Blinken spoke with Ukraine’s president in Kyiv on Wednesday, and he will travel to Berlin on Thursday for discussions with allies.

Biden said that he does not believe Putin has made up his mind about invading but guessed that “my prediction is he will move in.”

If Russia invades, one option being considered, according to Biden, is to block Russian transactions with US financial institutions, including “anything involving dollar denominations.” According to a senior administration official who was not allowed to speak publicly, Biden was alluding to potentially limiting Russia’s access to “dollar clearing” – the conversion of payments by banks on behalf of clients into US dollars from rubles or other foreign currencies.

The US president stated that he believes Putin would make the decision “solely” and that he is not confident that the Russian officials with whom top White House advisers have been negotiating are completely aware of Putin’s thoughts.

Meanwhile, a senior Russian diplomat stated that Moscow will not budge on its demand that the US explicitly bar Ukraine from joining NATO and diminish the alliance’s military posture in Eastern Europe. Moscow had no intention of invading Ukraine, but its demands for security guarantees were non-negotiable, according to Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov.

The United States and its allies have stated that the Russian demands are non-starters, that Russia is aware of this, and that Putin is using them as a pretext to invade Ukraine, which has deep ethnic and historical links to Russia. The former Soviet republic wishes to join the alliance, but it is unlikely to do so anytime soon.

Blinken, on the other hand, stated that no such formal answer would be forthcoming. “I will not be giving a paper to Foreign Minister Lavrov at that time,” he stated. “We need to assess where we are and whether there are still prospects for diplomacy and conversation.”

Lee filed this report from Kyiv. This report was co-written by Associated Press writers Vladimir Isachenkov in Moscow and Yuras Karmanau in Kyiv.